Signals & Intelligence

HL Vaults provides two distinct layers of vault intelligence. The first is purely deterministic — signals computed from on-chain data, no AI involved, zero configuration required. The second is AI-powered analysis, which produces free-form insights once you connect an LLM provider. Both are ★ Pro features.

Deterministic Signals

Six signal cards deliver structured diagnostics the moment you’re on the Pro plan. No setup, no API keys, no AI — just computation against on-chain data. Each card shows a severity rating (Low / Medium / High / Extreme) and a plain-English explanation of what it means.

How is the vault’s trading style classified?

The Style Fingerprint analyzes the vault’s trade history and assigns one of four archetypes:

Scalper — many small trades, short hold times
Swing Trader — medium-duration positions, trend-following
Position Trader — few large positions, long hold times
Market Maker — tight bid-ask, high frequency

The fingerprint also measures how consistently the vault’s actual behavior matches its declared approach. A vault that calls itself a Position Trader but churns positions weekly may be misaligned — a useful signal in itself.

Where does leverage fall on the risk spectrum?

The Leverage Profile captures both typical and current leverage usage, binned into four categories:

Conservative — under 1.5x
Moderate — 1.5x to 3x
Aggressive — 3x to 5x
Extreme — over 5x

The raw categorization is useful, but the real signal is in the deviation from the vault’s own history. A vault that normally runs 1.5x but sits at 4x today is behaving unusually. That delta often tells you more than the absolute leverage figure.

How does the vault recover from drawdowns?

Drawdown Recovery examines every significant drawdown and measures three dimensions: how long recovery took, the average recovery speed, and whether the vault tends to bounce back fully or only partially.

A vault that recovers quickly and consistently demonstrates disciplined risk management. One that lingers in drawdown territory for months carries latent risk — even if its headline return numbers look acceptable. Use this to separate vaults that manage risk from those that have simply been lucky so far.

Is depositor capital concentrated or widely held?

Depositor Concentration applies a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to the vault’s depositor base:

Well Distributed — no single depositor dominates
Moderately Concentrated — the top depositor holds a significant share
Highly Concentrated — one or two wallets control most of the capital

High concentration introduces structural risk. If the dominant depositor withdraws, the vault’s capital base — and its ability to execute its strategy — can be impaired. Flag this during position sizing, particularly for larger allocations.

How actively does the vault trade?

Trading Velocity measures how frequently the vault flips between long and short bias:

High Velocity — multiple trades per day
Medium Velocity — several trades per week
Low Velocity — a few trades per month

High velocity tends to generate more fees, which can drag on net returns. It may reflect active management, or it may indicate reactive, trend-chasing behavior. Low velocity suggests a longer time horizon and lower trading costs. Neither is inherently better or worse — the value is in understanding which pattern fits your expectations for the strategy.

How correlated is this vault with others in your portfolio?

Cross-Vault Correlations computes the Pearson R between this vault’s returns and those of every other vault on the platform. High correlation means two vaults move together — similar strategies, overlapping market exposure, or both. Low correlation means their return streams are largely independent.

This signal exists to guard against false diversification. Two vaults with different labels can still correlate heavily if they trade the same assets or use similar frameworks. If you hold three vaults that all correlate above 0.8, you’ve concentrated your exposure — not diversified it.

AI-Powered Analysis

Deterministic signals tell you what is happening. AI analysis attempts to address why. It requires you to connect an LLM provider — OpenAI, Anthropic, or any OpenAI-compatible API — through your settings. Once configured, the AI generates three types of additional analysis.

What does the AI reveal about the vault leader?

The Personality Dossier is an LLM-generated profile of the vault leader’s trading psychology. It examines:

Decision-making patterns — aggressive positioning vs. conservative capital preservation
Risk management behavior — how they size positions and cut losses
Behavioral biases — overconfidence, loss aversion, recency bias, and others
Consistency and discipline across different market regimes

This is not a clinical evaluation. It’s a structured framework for understanding the person behind the strategy. Two vaults can produce similar returns while having very different risk personalities — and that distinction tends to matter most during market stress.

Can the AI forecast returns?

The Return Forecast analyzes historical performance, current market conditions, and recent trading patterns to produce two time horizons:

Short-term outlook — roughly the next 1-2 weeks
Medium-term outlook — roughly the next 1-3 months

Each outlook includes the key risks the AI identifies as most likely to affect performance moving forward.

This is directional, not predictive. The forecast is a pattern-recognition exercise — it surfaces what has typically happened after similar conditions in the past, not what will happen now. Use it as one input among many, not as a standalone reason to enter or exit a position.

What warning signs does the AI detect?

Red Flag Detection scans for patterns that have historically preceded adverse events:

Unusual trading behavior relative to the vault’s own history
Sudden shifts in leverage, position sizing, or strategy
Concentrated positions in volatile or illiquid assets
Behavioral patterns that have preceded losses in the past

Each flag includes a severity rating. These are early warnings, not definitive judgments. Treat them as triggers for deeper investigation — when the AI flags something, examine the underlying data yourself before acting on it.

How do you connect an AI provider?

Navigate to Settings → AI.
Select your provider — OpenAI, Anthropic, or a custom OpenAI-compatible endpoint.
Enter your API key.
Click Test Connection to verify everything works.

Once configured, AI analysis becomes available on every vault detail page. You can regenerate individual reports on demand — each analysis type has its own refresh button, so you’re not forced to recalculate everything at once.

Column Reference — the metrics behind each signal
Performance Metrics — LP and DP grades in depth